Queensland Budget 2016:
Government advised to take less from super fund
Amy Remeikis - June 14 2016
The state government
was advised not to take more than $2 billion from the state's public service superannuation fund just a year before
yesterday's state budget locked in a $4 billion transfer.
A 2015 report by the State
Actuary said $2 billion was the "maximum" that should be moved from
the super fund.
The 2016 Queensland budget will
focus on innovation, investment and infrastructure while creating jobs and
paying down debt.
Treasurer Curtis Pitt had
defended the $4 billion move to shore up the state's balance sheet, saying the
government had been advised it could take up to $5 billion from the scheme's
surplus but had chosen to be "conservative" and leave a $1 billion
buffer.
But documents tabled in
Parliament by the Treasurer on Tuesday show the government was advised that
repatriating $4 billion would create a 50 per cent probability, using
conservative investment return estimates, of the fund going in to deficit.
Using that same metric, a $5
billion repatriation had a 62 per cent probability of producing a deficit in
the super fund.
The documents reveal the advice
to government changed after the government provided the State Actuary with
"greater policy clarity" on how fiscal principles should apply to the
management of long term liabilities of the fund.
The 2015 report from the State
Actuary, Wayne Cannon, recommended the government only take $2 billion from the
scheme.
"Based on my assessment of
the current and projected future funding position of the scheme, I believe that
a maximum surplus repatriation of $2.0 billion represents an appropriate response
to the high level of surplus, maintaining a reasonable capital buffer to
protect the funding position against adverse experience," he reported.
"Based on QIC's asset
models, this results in the following expected outcomes over the next five
years."
In a flurry of correspondence
between Under-Treasurer Jim Murphy and Mr Cannon between April and May, the
State Actuary was advised that the government wished to "provide greater
policy clarity" to how the fiscal principles which set out how it met its
long term liabilities.
"The government has
determined that in interpreting the fiscal principle; 1 – overfunding of the
Government's defined benefit scheme should be minimised; and 2 – the funding of
the defined benefit scheme is to be managed in accordance with the spirit of
the APRA funding and solvency standards applying to corporate defined benefit
schemes".
APRA is the Australian Prudential
Regulation Authority, which guides corporate schemes that tend to be less
conservative than how governments manage their own funds.
Using that advice Mr Cannon
advised the government, through the Under-Treasurer, that the risks associated
with repatriating a maximum of $5 billion would increase the risk the
government would be called on to contribute funds "as part of a
restoration plan".
"In my view, this risk is
greater than it appears on face value as the circumstances in which a deficit
arises – ie – adverse investment markets, subdued economy etc – are likely to
be ones where the Government is unlikely to have easy access to cash to repair
the deficit, either through receipts or borrowings," Mr Cannon warned.
"In effect, there is a
'doubling up' of the risks facing the sponsor.
In order to ensure the ongoing funding of the scheme, it is critical
that the Government recognises this issue and stands ready to contribute
additional funds should adverse experience occur in future.
"In conclusion the scheme is
very well funded and there is scope to repatriate some of the surplus.
"Based on the criteria
listed above, a maximum repatriation of $5 billion could be undertaken whilst
maintaining consistency with the APRA funding standards, allowing for the
contribution suspension and a small buffer against adverse experience."
In late April, Mr Cannon advised
the Under-Treasurer of the probabilities of deficit at 30 June 2020, based on
repatriation scenarios up to $6 billion.
Based on what the government
settled on - $4 billion – there is a 19 per cent chance the scheme will go into
deficit – based on the return to the scheme's investment in liberal market
conditions – and a 50 per cent chance it will go into deficit on the accounting
basis measure, which is more conservative and reflective of a more depressed
global market.
Mr Pitt has repeatedly defended
the move as following on from advice of the State Actuary and said the
government would continue to meet all of its responsibilities, as it is
legislatively set out to do.
"I would make the point that
this is not actually a superannuation fund," Mr Pitt said on Tuesday.
"This is a cash management
by the government. It is about looking at our long term liabilities and of
course we want to have those fully funded and that is our fiscal principle.
"But, of course, people must
be paid when they leave the defined benefit scheme, last year we had 3500
people leave the scheme – guess what, they all got paid, they all got given
their entitlements because that is what the government is legislatively
obligated to do. We will continue to do that.
"Any scare campaign being
run by the Opposition was proven false last year and they will continue to run
it this year and it's not true.
"We will continue looking at
what the Actuary tells us, taking his advice and ensuring that we give
consideration to what he's asked. We were given the opportunity based on the
most recent advice to consider repatriating $5 billion and we have not done
that. We have taken $4 billion through this process.
The $34 billion closed fund has
been described by Mr Pitt as Australia's only fully funded public servant super
scheme, and Mr Pitt said on Tuesday the decision to take $4 billion instead of
$5 billion was "conservative".
The Opposition said the move had
put the scheme at risk.
"This is the reckless act of
a desperate Government that could end up costing every taxpayer in
Queensland," shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson said.
"Labor has not accepted the
Independent State Actuaries advice and is instead taking twice as much as the
Actuary has recommended."
"In his advice to the State
Government, the State Actuary said in relation to the risk posed by raiding
more than the recommended $2 billion.
"...This raid has
substantially weakened the position of the superannuation fund and the State
Actuaries advice has confirmed that.
"Despite facing serious
fiscal challenges in government, the LNP never contemplated raiding the
superannuation entitlements of hardworking Queenslanders."
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